So the Academy Awards are tonight and it looks all but certain that The Artist will sweep the board. But, how about some surprises? It's been so long since there has been a big shock. The last one I remember is probably Crash's win over Brokeback Mountain back in 2005. People say Avatar should have won but really, it shouldn't. It's not actually very good, but I know I'm in the minority in thinking it was very average in all respects.
Right, let's look at the Best Motion Picture of the Year. And let's be honest: none are outstanding. We got Scorsese, Spielberg and Allen who have all made films that are a million times better. The art house darling in The Tree of Life. The beyond sugary sap, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (who trailer has me nearly in tears, but that might be more to do with the terrible U2 song attached to it) and also The Help (one that just looks like it's trying to hard to please everyone). We've got Moneyball and The Descendants, two films which the buzz has died down considerably. Which of course, only leaves The Artist. So kind of by default that should win. Don't get me wrong, it is a good film and a lovely nod towards silent cinema but I can't help feeling the Academy want to say "aren't we, and haven't we ALWAYS been fantastic?" It'll win as it's won so much in this award season, and it's definitely the best of the lot in my opinion.
The Best Director; if The Artist wins then it's Michel Hazanavicius' statue. And again; none of the others deserve it more than him so I don't mind him winning.
Best Supporting Actor seems wrapped up by Christopher Plummer in Beginners while Supporting Actress looks set to go to one of the ladies from The Help, my money is on Octavia Spencer. I can't see any surprises there.
Best Original Screenplay will be won by Michel Hazanavicius for The Artist and Best Adapted Screenplay hopefully goes to Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (Bridet O'Connor and Peter Staughan).
Other technical categories will probably be hovered up by Hugo and War Horse, while Harry Potter fans hoping they can do a (ever so slight) LOTR Return Of The King might as well go bed early. Those films aren't really any good and definitely not good enough for Oscar. Just face it, enjoy them for what they are but they are no master pieces (I give it 5 years before their inevitable "reimagining").
But while we're on Harry Potter let's talk Best Achievement in Visual Effects. Because any of the nominated films are better than HP Part 2. I'd HOPE for Rise of the Planet of the Apes. I'd even take Real Steel. Transformers: Dark of the Moon wouldn't surprise me, neither would Hugo. But I have this horrible feeling it will be HP Part 2. It shouldn't be.
I've not seen any of the documentaries or the short films animated of live. Sorry guys. Or the Foreign Language films, so they will all be a surprise to me.
Then we've also got Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures, Original Song to give it it's full title. Why are there only 2? What the hell is the point in that?? If you are trying to get rid of it, just get rid of it. And you would probably best get rid of it if Bret "Flight of the Conchords" McKenzie gets beaten by bloody Rio. We may as well all just shut up shop if that happens.
Best Animated Film is slightly open as there's no Pixar film to take it (Cars 2 was so bad. I hate Mater more than anything I've seen in cinema this year). I'm guessing Kung Fu Panda 2 (which looked amazing, and was much better than I thought it would be) or maybe Rango.
That leaves Best Actress and Best Actor. They might as well hand the award to Meryl Streep as she is going in, just to save her the wait. As for Actor, well it looks like Jean Dujardin will win it. And that's okay; his performance was amazing, and the more I think about it the more I think he deserves it. BUT as much as I like him, (he gave a good speech at the BAFTAs) I would love Gary Oldman to win for George Smiley in Tinker Tailor Solider Spy. His performance was very understated, and I still don't believe BAFTA didn't give him the award. For him to win the Oscar would be amazing. And I bet he is wearing the sharpest suit you'll ever see.
But he won't. The Artist will win very big, the smaller awards will be shared out and you'll be wondering (yet again) why you bothered to stay up all night and watch (or click the refresh button on) the least surprising Oscars ever.
EVER.
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